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Status of Fertility Transition in Kenya Based on Completed Parity Distribution

Caleb Ongong'a, University of Nairobi

Attempts to explain fertility transition have gained considerable interest among demographers. Fertility transition is defined as a long term decline in the number of children per woman which begun in Western Europe on the onset of the industrial revolution and then spread to other parts of the world. Fertility is a general term used to indicate the actual reproductive performance of a woman or group of women. There are different kinds of measures of fertility, of which total fertility rate (TFR) is one of them. This measure has been largely criticized. This study adopted the completed parity distribution (CPD) approach in explaining fertility transition in Kenya and to comprehend some of the phenomena that TFR has not been able to unravel. Analysis confirmed a consistent fertility decline over time. Conclusion is that fertility transition is still on, although it has stalled among the educated and those residing in urban areas.

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session P2. Poster Session 2