Fertility stalls in capital cities in sub-saharan Africa

Bruno D. Schoumaker, UCLouvain

In this paper, we focus on fertility trends in capital cities in sub-Saharan Africa. We first reconstruct fertility trends in African capital cities, in order to identify slowdowns in fertility declines. Next, we explore trends in fertility preferences and proximate determinants to identify the demographic dynamics of these slowdowns. We show that fertility has stalled in two thirds of capital cities, often at levels well above 3 children. These stalls have been around for roughly 15-20 years, and they result partly from a high demand for children that has not changed in recent years. And while contraception has increased, it has remained fairly low and its increase has been offset by changes in sexual exposure and postpartum infecundability. These trends suggest fertility changes in urban areas in the coming years will be limited.