The Role of Demographic and Income Events in Poverty Dynamics: Evidence on the Impact of Births Using South African Panel Data

Rocco Zizzamia, University of Cape Town
Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town
David Lam, University of Michigan

We investigate the relationship between child-birth and the dynamics of poverty. All things being equal, we would expect that the birth of a child would increase household size by one person, and that the consumption burden of the household would increase proportionately, potentially leading vulnerable households into poverty. However, it is likely that households would seek alternatives to simply adjusting consumption downward following the arrival of a child. We investigate this issue using National Income Dynamics Study panel data (2008-2017), and find that on average, for women who have had children between survey waves, adjusting consumption downward is the primary response to the birth of a child, leading vulnerable households into poverty. However, there is also evidence that households are at least partly able to mitigate the impact of the birth of a child on per capita consumption - partly through accessing social grants, and partly through undergoing household reconfiguration.