Resumed Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Does Happen from a Stalling Point?

Boladé Hamed Banougnin, University of Ibadan

This study surveys Sub-Saharan African countries that resumed fertility decline—after a stalled fertility—and, identifies and quantifies factors behind this. Understanding the factors affecting fertility in countries that restarted the transition to lower fertility would guide the development of programmes to further the downward trend. The study uses all currently (140) available data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) carried out in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1986 to 2017-2018. Preliminary survey reveals sixteen cases of resuming fertility decline that occurred in nine countries. The resuming fertility decline has been running consistently for several inter-survey periods of about five years in Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania. The 2003 and 2014 Kenya DHSs were used as sample. Findings show that variables representing the institutional, socioeconomic and reproductive behaviour account for a 28% reduction in current fertility; which could have therefore counted for the resuming decline in fertility in Kenya after the 2003’s stall.

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  Presented in Session 59. Fertility Patterns That Deviate from Conventional Theories II