Return Migration Intentions among Migrants in Six Southern Africa Countries

Ololade Julius Baruwa, University of Cape Town
Evans Muchiri, Wits University
Relebogile Mapuroma , Wits University
Latifat Ibisomi, Wits University

Analyzing factors that are associated with return migration intention is essential in understanding how migration behavior is perpetuated and also necessarily for policy implications for both place of origin and destination. We investigate return migration intentions among migrants living in Six Southern African countries using data from the Need Assessment and Baseline Survey and applying a binary logistic regression model. Findings indicate that 29.6% migrants have migration intention. Multivariate analysis shows that migrants residing in Mozambique and Zambia have lower risk of migration intention compared migrants from Malawi. Female migrants are less likely (OR=0.54, 95% CI=0.35-0.84) to have migration intentions and migrants who have not worked in the past 12 months are also less likely (OR=0.39, 95% CI=0.26-0.61) to have migration intentions. Migrants that are mobile/seasonal workers are more (OR=3.73, 95% CI=2.27-6.23) to have migration intentions. These findings should provide exploratory information for relevant stakeholders.