Effect of Migration to Cotonou on Interpregnancy Transition Rate: Application of Episode Splitting Method

Abibatou Agbéké Olakunle, Nazan Consulting

The study examines the effect of migration to Cotonou (the largest city of Benin) on interpregnancy transition rate. It uses data from the 2011-2012 Benin DHS including data on migration (for every household member). The unit of analysis is women’s birth episodes over their reproductive life (15-49 years). The complete record consists of 2,283 live births occurred among 1,222 women. The study adopted episode splitting method and employed exponential model. Findings show that, in general, migration to Cotonou increases the interpregnancy transition rate by about 20%. Then, when taking into account the duration and the migration nature, in-migrants remain more likely to transit to the next pregnancy than non-migrants. And, the higher the duration spent in Cotonou, the lower the acceleration of the transition to the next pregnancy. Return migrant and non-migrant women do no differ significantly in terms of interpregnancy transition. Findings give more support to the socialisation hypothesis.